Draper, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

737
FXUS65 KSLC 160447
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1047 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of critical fire weather conditions will return to
  portions of southern Utah Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

- A quite unseasonably cold storm system will result in
  temperatures 10-20F below normal for Sunday and Monday along
  with accumulating mountain and mountain valley snow, potentially
  significant for some northern Utah mountains and in southwest
  Wyoming.

- Freeze conditions will impact many Utah valleys outside of the
  Wasatch Front Monday and Tuesday mornings. Some areas that might
  see a hard freeze include the Cache Valley, Wasatch Back, west
  central Utah, southwest Utah, and the Sanpete Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough is noted on satellite imagery making
its way into the PacNW, while a weaker, more diffuse shortwave
disturbance is moving into CA. Ahead of these features, Utah
remains under a near-westerly flow aloft but will soon be
transitioning to more of a southwesterly flow by Saturday morning
as the upstream features approach. Meanwhile, some weak high-based
showers/virga continue this evening across southern Utah owing to
a weak surface boundary. These showers are expected to largely
taper off by midnight.

A cold front will push through northern Utah late Saturday
morning into Saturday afternoon, then continue to make its way to
southern Utah Saturday evening. Ahead of this front, gusty
southwest winds can be expected, which when combined with low
humidities, will create critical fire weather conditions. By peak
mixing Saturday afternoon, this will largely include valleys
across southern through east-central Utah. With modest midlevel
moisture and instability in place, expect a few showers near the
boundary, but mainly over/near the higher terrain. Precipitation
amounts are not expected to be very significant, although the HREF
does show 75th percentile values up to 0.3-0.4 across some
central through northern mountains, which may represent higher-end
amounts in heavier shower cores.

A trailing wave carving down the backside of the aforementioned
PacNW trough is then progged to reach the Great Basin on Sunday.
This will bring a stronger, reinforcing cold front and greater
chance of precipitation to the area. West-southwesterly winds
across southern Utah will potentially be stronger Sunday afternoon
compared to Saturday afternoon ahead of this cold front, which
would help maintain critical fire weather conditions mainly along
the AZ border for Sunday. Behind the cold front, afternoon max
temperatures will likely fail to reach 60F across most northern
Utah valleys on Sunday. As this front continues south,
temperatures on Monday will fall below normal areawide for Monday
by around 15-20 degrees.

This stronger cold front will aid more widespread precipitation
Sunday into at least Monday morning. The greatest amounts are
expected across northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming. The NBM
25th-75th percentile of QPF ranges from around 1.25-1.75 inches
across the Uintas, and 0.64-1.3 inches across southwest Wyoming.
Most valleys in Utah have less than 0.7 inches at the 75th
percentile. However, with the colder air comes lower snow levels,
which are expected to fall as low as 5-6kft by early Monday
morning. This will bring accumulating snow to the mountains and
higher valleys. Upcoming shifts will need to evaluate the need
for any winter weather highlights, especially for the Uintas and
Uinta County Wyoming where a period of northerly to northeasterly
flow presents favorable orographics.

Cooler air settling into the area will bring the potential for
freezing conditions to many Utah valleys Sunday night/Monday
morning and again Monday night/Tuesday morning. The first night
will be more tricky given clouds/precipitation, but as skies clear
out more for the second night, chances may be a bit better owing
to enhanced radiative cooling.

The airmass will trend drier and should be accompanied by a
gradual warming trend from Tuesday through late week. However,
the large-scale pattern during this time looks to be largely
represented by a northwesterly to near-zonal flow, so still expect
some uncertainty with the extended portion of the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will be largely light and variable
overnight, only slightly favoring a southeasterly direction.
Northwesterly winds will prevail after ~15-17z, becoming gusty to 20-
25kts after 18z. A few high-based showers are possible during the
afternoon, which could make winds a bit more squirrelly at times.
VFR conditions will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered weak, high-based
showers across southern Utah will diminish by ~08z or so, but may
cause gusty and erratic winds until then. Otherwise, winds will be
mostly light and terrain-driven overnight. Southwesterly winds will
prevail ahead of a boundary Saturday afternoon with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of gusty and erratic
outflow winds, mainly across eastern Utah. Northwesterly to westerly
winds will prevail behind this boundary, initially located along
roughly KMLF-KPUC around 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and mild conditions will continue into
Saturday, with high temperatures near to 5F above seasonal normals
across northern Utah and up to 10F above normal over southern
Utah. With the approach of a cold Pacific Northwest storm system,
winds will become breezy by Saturday afternoon. This will combine
with the dry conditions over southern Utah to produce areas of
critical fire weather conditions. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has
been issued for most of the valleys of southern Utah for Saturday.
The storm system will cross Utah Sunday into Monday, bringing
temperatures up to 20F below seasonal normals both Sunday into
Monday. Relative humidities will come up significantly over the
area, but are still expected to be critically dry over far
southern Utah. With winds a bit gustier than Sunday, have
continued the Red Flag Warning into Sunday across far southern
Utah. Snow levels are expected to drop as low as 5000 feet Sunday
into Monday, with most mountains and mountain valleys seeing
between two and six inches of snow. The exception will be portions
of the western Uinta mountains, where up to 12 inches of new snow
is possible. Behind the trough, the area will see a steady warming
trend beginning Tuesday along with a drying trend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ489-494-
     495.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ497-498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Cunningham

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